Volume 25: Back to the House
A bigger and better log-loss comparative analysis of quantitative and qualitative projections for the 2020 U.S. House of Representatives...
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The Fundamental Theorem of Health Insurance
Many disciplines have “Fundamental Theorems.” They take a complex topic and distill it to an essence, from which much of the rest can be...
Volume 14: Game Theory and the Nuclear Age
This Volume will prominently feature death, destruction, fallout, nuclear winters and the end of the human race.
Volume 12: The Poincaré Conjecture
What is the shape of the universe? Are we even allowed to ask?
How much should I bet?
It is both obvious and counter-intuitive. The more you have of something, the less value you have for each individual thing.
Taxes and Growth Rates and Plenty of Charts
What's the most famous thing ever drawn on a dinner napkin? I would say it's probably the Laffer Curve. While the idea had previously...
Volume 7: Bayesian Analysis
Why You Can Never Be Sure of Anything “Bet you $50 it hasn't.” – xkcd #1132 People don’t like thinking probabilistically. They crave...
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